Thursday, October 27, 2011

Don't believe in models

Models are a fine tool – just don't mistake them for the reality. Whether economy, climate or medical science, some (many?) scientist have models of the world, which might be helpful to understand a an smaller or larger aspect of the real world. Yet in an act of what seems to me to be confirmation bias, the mistake "their" model of the world for realty itself – and then it becomes religious. Catastrophic positive feedback in climate! The homo economicus with his self-interest will lead the invisible hand of the markets. My model of your illness proves leaves only one conclusion.

No. Your model is not the reality, and chances are it is actually far away from it – just some spurious correlation.

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