Bill Briggs smacks down Phil Plait

After getting a first slap, Phil Plait, that blithering self-centered loudmouth, gets a another slap by Bill Briggs:

It is a sure sign that Sanity has packed her bags and headed for the door when otherwise sober scientists begin slinging around terms like “denier” and “denialist.” Language like this displays willful, pretended, or real ignorance of the historical context of these words. Anybody who talks like this makes himself an ass. They’s fightin’ words which start any discussion on an angry footing, their presence a certain indication we are dealing with zealotry, not science.

Let’s look again at the claim made by the scientists at the Wall Street Journal, over which many have popped their corks:

The lack of warming for more than a decade—indeed, the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections—suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause.

There are two claims made here. Given the observational evidence we have, both claims appear true. The first (A) is that for the last ten years it has not grown warmer. Since it has grown warmer in some places and colder in others, this is evidently a claim about some global average and not any individual station. The second claim (B) says that the IPCC forecasts have been systematically too large: it is also concerned with some global average.
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What about the counter-claim (C) that the 2000′s where the “warmest years on record” or the like? It is trivially false. The 2000s simply were not the warmest. Four billion years ago, Earth was much hotter. “Wait! It’s obvious we weren’t talking about billions of years ago. Cheater! Denier!” Well, it isn’t obvious. What years did you have in mind as comparators? Ah, that’s the real question, isn’t it.

Did we mean just the last century? The last 1000 years? The last 10,000? What? You must supply a starting year. To make the claim (C) that it’s hotter now than before, you must tell us what you mean by before. If you say “before” means the last ten years, then claim (C) is identical with claim (A). If you say the last 200 years, then you have to do what BEST tried and incorporate the non-parameter error bars, otherwise there is no way to compare what happened a century ago with what happened last year. Obviously, the further you go back, the larger those uncertainty bars become, therefore the more difficult it becomes to claim (with any certainty) that now was hotter than then.

As I often say, over-certainty abounds in this field. People speak of models (statistical and physical) as if they were truth, as if the data that goes into them were granted some kind of special immunity from ordinary criticism. And when the critiques come, that’s when the asinine language breaks out. All sense of humor evaporates.

You would think that because both claims (A) and (B) are likely true (and claim (C) is unproved or likely false) that we have found a reason to celebrate! Perhaps our worst fears won’t be realized after all. This is good news! Wouldn’t it be great if we really did over-emphasize feedback in climate models and that whatever changes we do make to the climate are easily mitigated and not as horrific as posited?

Why so glum that things are so good?